000 AXNT20 KNHC 061742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N08W EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 01N11W TO 03N25W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MIGRATING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF SARASOTA FLORIDA SOUTHWEST TO 23N94W. LAND BASED RADAR IN FLORIDA IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THIS CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ALONG FURTHER WESTWARD INTO THE GULF ALONG THE FRONT AS TO AROUND 88W. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM TAMPA SHOWED GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 25 TO 30 KT N THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN INDICATION OF POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR THE FRONTAL CONVECTION. LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOY 42003 IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF SHOW PEAK WINDS TO 23 KT. BROKEN STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF IS STARTING TO CLEAR. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST GULF TONIGHT...LEAVING MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH ASCAT DATA SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS ESTIMATED NEAR 8 FT. SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THESE TRADE WINDS IS SUPPORTING LINES OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. FURTHER NORTH...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD TROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION AND FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE EASTERN N ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO 32N32W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SITUATED NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32W19W TO 27N30W. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS LIFTING OUT...AND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST OF THE FRONT...A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 29N42W...MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS N OF 22N E OF 65W. S OF THE HIGH PRES..A 1240Z ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH 0942Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW...GENERALLY W OF 55W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. THE WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS CYCLONIC TURNING INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 52W FROM 16N TO 21N...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM. FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE N OF 29N E OF 72W BY FRI. BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW STRONG NW FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT AT BUOY 41010 100 NM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN