000
AXNT20 KNHC 061133
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST THU JAN 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W 
EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 4N25W 3N40W 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N 
BETWEEN 14W AND 22W...AND FROM 6N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 27W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A 
SURFACE LOW IN THE W ATLC N OF THE REGION. AS OF 0900 UTC...A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N83W TO 26N94W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 
22N97W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 87W. 
OTHERWISE...THE NW AND S GULF HAVE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING... 
WITH THE S GULF UNDER STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N75W TO 
10N77W PROVIDING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS N OF 13N. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
ALSO ALONG A LINE FROM 16N79W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 
16N-20N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SE OF THE LOW CENTER IN 
THE NW ATLC N OF THE AREA...ANALYZED ALONG 32N76W 31N80W TO OVER 
N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
IS N OF 27N W OF 68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL UPPER 
LEVEL ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLC WITH MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N59W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 
28N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N22W EXTENDING SW TO 26N35W WHERE IT 
DISSIPATES TO 24N42W...THEN BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT ALONG 25N47W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM 
E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA 
N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-50W SPLIT BY THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED FROM 21N52W TO 17N54W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 18N. ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE E FROM 22N40W TO 18N41W...ALSO 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N 
OF 19N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SMM/PAW