000 AXNT20 KNHC 060536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 5N30W 4N40W 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE W ATLC OFF OF THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW INTO THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N86W 29N90W TO 26N95W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 22N97W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 90W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO MOVE QUICKLY ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 16N71W ALONG 14N75W TO 9N76W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-18N E OF 71W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE OF THE LOW CENTER OVER S GEORGIA IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N81W 30N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST ATLC N OF 28N W OF 74W. OTHERWISE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLC...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF 32N. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N61W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 28N70W BECOMING DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 28N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1017 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 24N67W. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N25W EXTENDING SW TO 26N39W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 25N46W...THEN BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 26N49W TO 27N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. TWO SURFACE HIGHS ARE ANALYZED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N44W AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N52W TO 16N55W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 18N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SMM/PAW