000
AXNT20 KNHC 052338
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST WED JAN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 6N11W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 5N30W 4N40W 2N50W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 1S TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES 
SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W. A 
WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE W ATLC ALONG 
29N84W 29N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 
THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 27N94W 23N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. SIMILAR 
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO 
FRONTS ARE AFFECTING MOSTLY THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 28N. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH CLEAR 
SKIES S OF 27N.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. CONSEQUENTLY...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE 
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WNW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 16N71W TO 
09N76W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM NW 
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E 
OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING 
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE AREA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO THE FAR 
WEST ATLC N OF 29N W OF 74W...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY 
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS ENTERS THE NW BASIN TONIGHT. 
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW 
ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 40N...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF 32N. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE...A COLD 
FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 27N72W 
BECOMING STATIONARY TO 27N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SECOND COLD 
FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N26W EXTENDING SW TO 25N40W 
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 25N45W 26N53W AND DISSIPATES 
TO 24N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED FROM 22N51W TO 15N54W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 17N. SURFACE 
RIDGING IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA