000 AXNT20 KNHC 051804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N11W 04N20W 04N37W 01S49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 24W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY BENIGN PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND IS FORECAST TO INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC BY EARLY THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN...A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR ORLANDO TO MOBILE BAY THEN ALONG 30N TO EASTERN TEXAS AND ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO CORPUS CHRISTI. S-SW SURFACE FLOW IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 88W AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 29N E OF 88W... INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NE FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES S OF 27N. CARIBBEAN SEA... WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OBSERVED ALOFT. THIS MORNING'S KINGSTON JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN CAYMAN ISLAND 05/1200 UTC UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATED THIS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. WHILE THE EASTERLY TRADES AT THE SURFACE REMAIN RATHER BRISK...IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 210 NM NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 67W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FROM 13N-32N WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTEND INTO AN OTHERWISE LARGELY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATED AREA WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST...THE SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N45W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 26N TO 63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE FRONT BRIDGES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N53W AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N50W. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 48W-55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN