000
AXNT20 KNHC 032358
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST MON JAN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 
2N40W...AND ALONG 2N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WEST 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 6N47W TO 1N45W...HOWEVER THERE IS NO 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT AT THIS TIME. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 2W-22W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 24W-33W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 
CONTINUES INTO THE GULF ALONG 25N85W 25N89W 23N94W ENDING AT THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. THIS FRONT IS DISSIPATING DUE TO A 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE N OF 27N THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD OUT 
OF THIS AREA INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ENTIRE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SE 
CONUS...GIVING CLEAR SKIES CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N 
OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES RATHER UNEVENTFUL DUE TO A BROAD AND 
DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING SW TO W FLOW ALOFT 
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR 
ACROSS THE REGION. A SHEAR LINE IS ALONG THE E CARIBBEAN 
CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N52W TO 12N65W DELINEATING 
CONVERGING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG 
THE SHEAR AXIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 200 NM W AND NW OF THE LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE E CONUS SEABOARD INTO 
THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/2100 UTC 
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N70W TO SE FLORIDA NEAR 27N79W WHERE IT 
BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 170 NM SW OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS 
REMAINDER OF THE NW ATLANTIC W 0F 49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE 
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH ABOUT 185 NM NE OF ELEUTHERA 
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N72W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N36W 
28N39W TO 26N44W CONTINUING TO 26N49W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 140 NM E OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 
27N34W 22N38W TO 17N43W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM NE 
OF THE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLANTIC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 25W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS/GARCIA