000 AXNT20 KNHC 031743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 3N29W 2N40W...AND ALONG 3N45W 1N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 7N42W TO 2N43W WITH SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 42W-47W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 2W-19W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 22W-25W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 28W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/1500 UTC BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N81W ALONG 24N90W 22N93W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO JUST E OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A DISSIPATING PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 84W AND WITHIN 180/200 NM NW OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF COVERING THE SE CONUS AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED OVER W MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS LEAVING THE N GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER UNEVENTFUL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. PATCHES OF REMNANT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE AREA FROM 11N-17N W OF 65W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SHEAR LINE ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS MARTINIQUE NEAR 15N61W TO 12N63W DELINEATING 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE NW AND 10-15 KT WINDS TO THE SE OF THE LINE. LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLANTIC MOVING E SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/1500 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N70W TO SE FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS REMAINDER OF THE NW ATLANTIC W 0F 45W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH ABOUT 425 NM SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 26N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N37W 27N45W TO 27N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N33W 25N36W TO 21N42W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLANTIC WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLANTIC DISSIPATING NEAR 32N24W EXTENDING TO 27N30W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC. A SHEAR LINE IS TO THE SW EXTENDING FROM 19N47W TO MARTINIQUE NEAR 15N61W WITH THE SAME WINDS AS IN THE E CARIBBEAN MENTIONED ABOVE AND WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MONTALVO/HUFFMAN