000
AXNT20 KNHC 031151
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST MON JAN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N9W 3N18W 3N29W 2N37W 3N45W 2N51W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 9N40W 5N41W TO 
4N40W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 
43W-46W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 6W-17W WITH LARGER CLUSTERS 
FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-31W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER E CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT THAT AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE TO FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF TO 
24N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 22N93W TO INLAND OVER S 
MEXICO JUST E OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A SECOND 
PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. 
DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM 
SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 84W AND WITHIN 150/180 NM NW OF THE 
ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD N 
OF THE FRONT COVERING THE SE CONUS AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO 
ANCHORED OVER THE N MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS LEAVING THE N GULF 
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE/ 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. PATCHES OF REMNANT 
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE AREA FROM 12N-16N E OF 
80W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE E CONUS MOVING OVER THE NW 
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0900 UTC ENTERS THE 
REGION NEAR 32N73W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
MELBOURNE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 
55W ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 24N67W AND A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 
27N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N39W TO 31N45W THEN NW TO BEYOND 
32N50W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN 
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W 
EXTENDING ALONG 24N32W TO 18N43W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 2N34W ALONG 20N29W THEN 
NE TO BEYOND 32N17W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF 
LINE FROM 25N34W TO BEYOND 32N23W. A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS IS JUST 
TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM 21N45W ALONG 18N54W TO BARBADOS. A 
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED 
BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER NW ALGERIA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW