000
AXNT20 KNHC 030552
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON JAN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N9W 4N13W 5N22W 3N31W 5N38W 4N43W 
4N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 11N41W 
TO 3N39W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
4N-8N BETWEEN 42W-45W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 5W-15W WITH 
LARGER CLUSTERS FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER E CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT THAT AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO JUST N OF TAMPA INTO THE 
GULF TO 25N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 22N92W TO 
INLAND OVER S MEXICO JUST E OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A 
SECOND PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE E 
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE AND WITHIN 120 NM NW 
OF THE COLD FRONT. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY COVER THE 
AREA S OF 24N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT AND INLAND OVER MEXICO. A 
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING N OF THE FRONT COVERING THE SE CONUS 
AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVELS 
OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE GIVING THE 
CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. REMNANT LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING W ACROSS 
THE AREA FROM 14N-18N E OF 80W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES 
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
AGAIN TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE E CONUS MOVING INTO THE NW 
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0300 UTC ENTERS THE 
REGION NEAR 32N77W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
DAYTONA BEACH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC 
W OF 55W ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 25N69W AND A SURFACE 
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 
28N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 
COLD FRONT THAT REMAINS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER 
LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING 
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N23W EXTENDING ALONG 
27N27W TO 24N37W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N47W THEN 
DISSIPATES ALONG 17N56W TO 14N59W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 2N34W ALONG 20N30W THEN 
NE TO BEYOND 32N17W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 175/200 
NM OF LINE FROM 23N38W TO 32N25W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER 
MOROCCO. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW