000 AXNT20 KNHC 022336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NRN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W CONTINUING WWD ALONG 4N23W 6N40W 1N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 18W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 24W-32W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W FROM 4N-10N ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 36W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE AT 31N82W ALONG 27N85W 25N89W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N93W 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 100 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD...250 NM BEHIND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WHICH IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FAR NW...AND FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AS A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE NELY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 15W E OF 75W MOST LIKELY DUE TO MODERATE WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 70W SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N71W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NRN FLORIDA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST OFF THE NE COAST N OF 27N W OF 79W. A WIDESPREAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE N CENTRAL ATLC. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N25W CONTINUING ALONG 26N29W 23N37W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 21N44W 19N49W...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE ALONG 17N55W 13N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 30W-40W AND SHOULD REACH IT WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM W OF PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE S OF PORTUGAL PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON