000 AXNT20 KNHC 021748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 4N30W 6N40W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 32W-42W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 100 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ALONG 25N90W. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BARELY MOVED OVER THE LAST 6-9 HRS. HOWEVER...AS OF 1500 UTC...THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SO IT IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT N OF 28N. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS PROVIDING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. NORTH WINDS 15-30 KT ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 22N. SSE WINDS 10-15 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HR EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BEND/DRIFT SE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE A GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING 15-25 KT SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 14N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES N OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-79W. WITHIN THIS REGION...WIND SURGES EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE N OF 16N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN N OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 40 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 63W-70W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 22W-60W. EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA... SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N26W TO 24N36W...WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N50W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 35 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THESE WILL INTRODUCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR NOW...SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N70W PROVIDING ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW W OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA