000
AXNT20 KNHC 021138
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN JAN 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N25W 6N40W 
TO BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 6W-9W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 15W-22W...AND FROM 
2N-7N BETWEEN 26W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN 
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N85W 26N90W 21N94W 17N95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA FROM 
29N-32N BETWEEN 82W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER 
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 26N90W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. 
20-25 NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE S 
OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S ALONG THE N 
GULF STATES NW OF THE FRONT. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING 
THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND 
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 10-15 KT 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
PATCHES OD BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND 
THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. SIMILAR LOW 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO 
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N27W TO 28N30W 23N40W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
CONTINUES TO 18N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N50W 
TO 17N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W 
OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 35W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
E OF 35W. EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY E OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC OFF 
THE FLORIDA COAST.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA