000
AXNT20 KNHC 020535
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN JAN 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W TO 3N25W 6N40W 
TO BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-4N BETWEEN 20W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 26W-37W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN 
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N86W 27N90W 23N94W 19N96W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 86W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
IS OVER FLORID AND THE SE GULF. 20-25 NE WINDS ARE N OF THE 
FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES 
ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S ALONG THE N GULF STATES NW OF THE 
FRONT. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED 
STATES AND NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. 
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 10-15 KT 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
PATCHES OD BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND 
THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. SIMILAR LOW 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA 
TO HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N69W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N29W TO 23N40W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
CONTINUES TO 19N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N50W 
TO 17N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W 
OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 35W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
E OF 35W. EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY E OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC OFF 
THE FLORIDA COAST.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA