000 AXNT20 KNHC 012345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SRN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N11W CONTINUING WWD ALONG 4N21W 5N40W 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 26W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 33W-38W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 34W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA AT 31N87W TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N93W 20N96W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD...90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 23N-28N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 23N. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO NW MEXICO PROVIDING MOSTLY MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE ERN UNITED STATES COAST WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE 15-20 KT S-SE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO INDICATES A SMALL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS NEAR 25N88W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA MOST LIKELY DUE TO WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA S OF 13N DUE TO WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING ALONG 11N BETWEEN 62W-72W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN WITH MAINLY WSW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N71W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. A WIDESPREAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N29W TO 25N36W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N27W 26N32W 22N40W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR AXIS TO 20N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS...AND WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND AND N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/SHEARLINE. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALSO BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT ALONG 32N35W 28N40W 26N47W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 18N51W 17N54W 15N55W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 13N57W 12N62W AND INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. THE FAR E ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED SW OF PORTUGAL NEAR 35N13W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON