000
AXNT20 KNHC 011148
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT JAN 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W 4N23W 5N43W 2N52W. SMALL 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 
25W-35W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 41W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS INTO THE FAR NW GULF W 
OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA WITH 
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 01/0900 UTC EXTENDS OVER W 
LOUISIANA BETWEEN LAFAYETTE AND LAKE CHARLES INTO THE GULF ALONG 
27N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST S OF LAGUNA MADRE. ALL OF THE 
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL INLAND OVER 
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND TENNESSEE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN 
THE NW GULF WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SURFACE 
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF TO 
85W GIVING THE GULF E OF THE FRONT SE SURFACE FLOW. THE GULF IS 
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E GULF AND THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 
FROM 22N92W TO 28N87W AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF 
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE DEPICTED AS A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE S CARIBBEAN FROM SAINT LUCIA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 13N66W 
TO 12N75W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
SHEAR AXIS AND SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVER THE ABC ISLANDS. 
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THE SW FLOW ALOFT 
CONVERGING WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N 
ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC 
W OF 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W 
OF 50W TO OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB 
HIGH ABOUT 300 NM W OF BERMUDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
35W-75W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL 
ATLC NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING TO 25N44W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N59W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 
75/90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE 
E EXTENDING FROM 28N32W ALONG 20N45W TO JUST E OF BARBADOS. AN 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST TO THE E ALONG 25W FROM THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 24N CONTINUING N TO 
BEYOND 32N28W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKENING SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB 
HIGH 250 NM NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW