000
AXNT20 KNHC 010534
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT JAN 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N7W 2N18W 3N36W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 4W-13W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 22W-34W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH THE UPPER 
LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON TO 
CORPUS CHRISTI AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N95W INLAND 
OVER MEXICO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 25N98W. ALL OF THE HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND 
FURTHER NORTH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NW GULF 
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN 
THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF TO 85W GIVING THE GULF E OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH SE SURFACE FLOW. THE GULF IS UNDER SW FLOW 
ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE DEPICTED AS A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN FROM DOMINICA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 14N72W 
TO 13N83W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
SHEAR AXIS. THIS FEATURE/CLOUD LINE WITH SHOWERS HAS PRODUCED AN 
INCH OF RAIN OVER GUADELOUPE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE W ATLC W OF 75W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W TO OVER THE 
FAR E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM W 
OF BERMUDA AND A 1027 MB HIGH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A 
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND 
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 35W-75W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING TO 
25N47W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SHEAR AXIS TO 22N66W WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A 
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 32N29W ALONG 
22N42W TO 17N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 24N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A REMNANT 
CLOUD LINE DEPICTED AS A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM THERE INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS DOMINICA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
SHEAR AXIS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E 
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW