000
AXNT20 KNHC 310531
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 5N18W 4N32W 2N43W EQ50W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 
FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA BETWEEN 9W-12W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF 
TO 85W GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SE SURFACE FLOW. THE GULF IS UNDER 
SW FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS 
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROKEN/OVERCAST 
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF 
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 83W-88W. LIGHT FOG AND HAZE IS BEING 
REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 87W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT 
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE FRI.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM A RECENT 
FRONTAL PASSAGE COVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE 
FROM 15N71W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W INTO 
CENTRAL ATLC. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY 
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A 
1007 MB SURFACE LOW JUST S OF PANAMA IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE SPREADING N 
ACROSS PANAMA JUST INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS 
OVER THE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE W ATLC W OF 73W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W TO OVER THE FAR E GULF 
OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W. A BROAD UPPER 
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE REGION N OF 30N W OF 50W WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINING N OF THE REGION. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. 
HOWEVER...A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N30W 
EXTENDING TO 21N46W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST E OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR NEAR 17N61W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N25W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW