000 AXNT20 KNHC 301131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 6N19W 3N36W 5N43W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 2N19W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA NEAR 7N12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF TO 85W WHICH IS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SOUTHERLY SURFACE LOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW GULF. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS SE LOUISIANA/SW MISSISSIPPI SUPPORTING A 1009 MB LOW NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S ACROSS ATCHAFALAYA BAY INTO THE GULF THEN W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS S MEXICO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROKEN TO OVER LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC COVERS THE FAR N CARIBBEAN N OF 19N WITH THE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO NEAR 16N66W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THE SW FLOW ALOFT CONVERGING WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 73W COVERING THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 19N W OF 57W TO OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N77W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 35W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N36W ALONG 25N43W TO 22N50W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N59W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING N OF 27N W OF 77W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 24N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW