000
AXNT20 KNHC 300542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU DEC 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 5N22W 2N32W 2N46W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF SW 
AFRICA AND WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-19W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 32W-40W AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 41W-49W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF TO 
87W WHICH IS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SOUTHERLY SURFACE LOW. A 
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS E TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA 
AND IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA BETWEEN NEW 
ORLEANS AND THE TEXAS BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER 
SW FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS E OF THE 
FLORIDA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS S MEXICO OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT 
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE FRI/EARLY SAT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC COVERS 
THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY DEPICTED AS A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL 
ATLC ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO NEAR 14N72W. 
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE 
SHEAR AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 15N80W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N81W WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 
79W-83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W 
OF 81W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN 
ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS 
OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 77W COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 
W ATLC W OF 65W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 35W-65W 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W 
ALONG 25N44W TO 20N55W WHERE IT IS DEPICTED AS A SHEAR AXIS INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. DENSE 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE 
COLD FRONT AND BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE SHEAR AXIS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND W 
ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING N OF 27N W OF 74W. AN 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 
8N53W TO BEYOND 32N20W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF 
THE FRONT TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N28W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW