000 AXNT20 KNHC 271137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N11W 4N17W 4N31W 2N42W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS IN WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30'S AND 40'S TO 23N INCLUDING S TEXAS AND S FLORIDA WITH MID 50'S IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY S OF 27N E OF 93W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 89W TO OVER THE W ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR PALMA SORIANO JUST E OF JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NEAR THE COAST RICA BORDER WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 17N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N76W TO OVER PANAMA NEAR 8N78W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N68W TO 14N75W. THIS IS LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 65W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W ALONG 26N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR PALMA SORIANO. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N66W ALONG 25N69W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FRONT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 17W-40W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N22W EXTENDING ALONG 27N30W TO 22N40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT SPLITS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1021 MB HIGH W OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW