000
AXNT20 KNHC 261130
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 85 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W AND 40W. 
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING CONVECTIVE 
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF...IS NOW OVER THE WEST ATLC. 
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW 
CENTER ACROSS THE THE FLORIDA STRAITS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD OF THE 
BOUNDARY. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE N OF 27N 
W TO 91W. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT. MEANWHILE...A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BEHIND 
THE FRONT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO EXTEND OVER N FLORIDA 
TONIGHT AND S FLORIDA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE CONUS EASTERN SEABOARD 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW ALOFT THAT COVERS 
THE CARIBBEAN...BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH 
AMERICA TO MUCH OF THE EAST...S CENTRAL...AND SW BASIN. THIS 
SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N E OF 82W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE WEST 
ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA ALONG 33N77W 26N78W 23N81W. 
THIS LOW IS QUICKLY DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE MOVING ALONG THE 
EASTERN US SEABOARD. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF 75W. 
THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 
1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N61W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N30W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N40W TO 21N48W 
WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 18N62W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W 
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS 
NEAR 28N22W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA