000
AXNT20 KNHC 260559
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
7N12W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 4N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 85 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W AND 37W. ISOLATED WEAK 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1004 MB LOW IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE 
WEST ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS 
THE SE BASIN ALONG 29N83W 25N84W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH 
IS ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS ANALYZED FROM 27N82W TO 23N84W. 
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARIES N OF 
23N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE N OF 27N W TO 
91W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THE COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE GULF SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN 
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR 
ADVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO 
EXTEND OVER N FLORIDA TONIGHT AND S FLORIDA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW 
ALOFT THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN...BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM 
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO MUCH OF THE EAST...S CENTRAL...AND SW 
BASIN. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N E OF 82W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE NEXT 3 
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN 
FLORIDA INTO THE WEST ATLC WITH CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING W 
OF 79W ASSOCIATED TO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS 
QUICKLY DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN US 
SEABOARD. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 6 
HOURS N OF 27N W OF 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER 
OF THE W ATLC W OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N63W. A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING 
SW ALONG 25N40W TO 21N50W WHERE IT BECOMES DISSIPATING TO JUST E 
OF THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 190 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 21N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF THE FRONT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A 1024 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N22W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA