000 AXNT20 KNHC 242353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 2N19W 2N44W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 8W-11W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM S OF 5N W OF 42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GULF REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE S GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE NOW DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE W OHIO VALLEY GIVING THE GULF RETURN SURFACE FLOW. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THE NW GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF FROM 25N-29N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER SE TEXAS. THIS FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE GULF LATER TONIGHT CROSSING THE GULF THEN EXITING THE GULF LATE SUN/EARLY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TRAILING A COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NICARAGUA NEAR THE COSTA RICA BORDER. A LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N57W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE ALONG 13N70W 11N80W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. MOISTURE AND THUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W CARIBBEAN SUN EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING ALONG 25N54W JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 20N68W THEN TURNING WNW TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE AT 25/0000 UTC. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N54W NE ALONG 17N52W TO BEYOND 32N35W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE NW OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N46W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADELOUPE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED BELOW THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 29N37W TO 23N43W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 18N53W TO 12N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N23W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW