000
AXNT20 KNHC 240551
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE 
NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 1N30W EQ40W TO BRAZIL NEAR 
2S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO 5N 
BETWEEN 20W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION WITH 
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
HOWEVER...A REMNANT CLOUD LINE STRETCHES NW TO SE ACROSS THE 
GULF FROM THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 
22N84W. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. 
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH LOW 
PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND DEEPEN AS IT 
TRACKS EAST THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. A COLD FRONT 
DRAPED SW FROM THE LOW CENTER WILL INTRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS OVER THE NW GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. 
FURTHERMORE...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS 
MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W FURTHER ENHANCING 
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. FARTHER EAST...MOIST S-SW 
FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG A SHEAR AXIS 
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N61W 13N67W 
13N73W 10N80W. NNE FLOW AND TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING ALONG THE 
AXIS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST 
THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RATHER LARGE AND BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN 
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH ATLC BY A 966 MB LOW CENTERED SE 
OF NEWFOUNDLAND NEAR 45N48W THAT CONTINUES TO EXTEND INFLUENCE 
OVER MUCH OF THE W-SW ATLC. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 
25N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N80W. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT 
LACKS OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 
SECOND BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED TO THE SAME DEEP TROUGH ENTERS THE 
REGION AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 30N26W AND EXTENDS SW TO 
22N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES 
ALONG 16N55W TO 9N60W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM 
EAST OF THE TROUGH N PF 13N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC 
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA