000 AXNT20 KNHC 231754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N7W 3N22W 1N34W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N...160 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-34W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 230 NM N...180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 41W-47W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT PLAINS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W TO 26N89W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W AND THEN ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. LITTLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT...AND THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IT IS CAUSING IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 86W-95W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SRN MEXICAN COAST IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SW GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE STATIONARY PORTION DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO IMPACTING MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. HOWEVER...ENHANCED AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N80W TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 9N77W. A 1013 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N79W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH/LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 78W-83W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N65W TO 15N70W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 65W-68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 68W-78W. FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH...AN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT LUCIA AT 13N61W TO 13N62W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 61W-63W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 966 MB LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND NEAR 44N50W IS INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SW N ATLC NEAR 32N64W CONTINUING SW TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W. THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY DRY AND ONLY SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 53W BY 1800 UTC TODAY. FARTHER E...A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 17N55W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT LUCIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH...A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N57W TO 7N61W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 10N49W WITH AXIS CONTINUING NE AND THEN N ALONG 45W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 36N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON