000
AXNT20 KNHC 191119
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 8N40W 9N50W 6N56W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 12W-15W. CLUSTERS OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 
20W-29W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 30W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 36W-46W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 14N50W TO 
4N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N80W 21N90W 
18N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 
26N BETWEEN 83W-90W. 10-15 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S ALONG THE N GULF COAST 
STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT 
THE FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS WITH A 
GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 
6N-10N BETWEEN 72W-83W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N75W 14N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER E...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE SURFACE 
TROUGH TO RETROGRADE E TO PUERTO RICO AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.      

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N75W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-32N 
BETWEEN 69W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 
28N76W 21N75W PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM 
21N-27N BETWEEN 70W-77W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 
28N60W. A 997 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N33W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 32N27W 25N30W 20N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 
21W-27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC E OF 45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N66W TO TO HISPANIOLA WITH  
CONVECTION.            

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA