000
AXNT20 KNHC 190535
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 7N20W 6N30W 9N40W 9N50W 
6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG 
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-5N 
BETWEEN 24W-27W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 24W-27W...FROM 6N-9N 
BETWEEN 30W-33W...AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 37W-45W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 38W-46W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 14N49W TO 
7N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 47W-51W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA 
TO SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 29N81W 27N82W 
22N90W 18N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N 
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-93W. 10-15 KT N WINDS ARE N 
OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S N OF THE 
FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF 
THE GULF IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR 
ADVECTION BEHIND IT.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 21N75W 14N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH. FURTHER E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF ARUBA 
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 67W-70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS... AND PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING 
SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 
RETROGRADE E TO HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.      

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N77W TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NEAR 
29N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A 1018 MB HIGH 
IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N61W. A 998 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 33N35W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 32N29W 27N30W 21N40W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-32N 
BETWEEN 25W-28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC E OF 45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N68W TO TO E CUBA WITH 
CONVECTION.            

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA