000 AXNT20 KNHC 180545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N24W 6N30W 7N45W 5N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 13N47W TO 4N44W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N84W 28N90W 27N95W 23N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 26N E OF 90W. 15 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S N OF THE FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 97W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO S OF JAMAICA ALONG 22N80W 15N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 74W-81W. FURTHER E... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-74W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N66W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 25N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 32W-37W. A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 18N32W ALSO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO BE OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA