000 AXNT20 KNHC 160554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N13W 04N30W 07N50W 06N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 12W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT ALOFT OVER THE GULF WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. S TO SW WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 74W. OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST AS A RESULT...WITH MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM ANGUILLA TO 16N72W THEN TO THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N74W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO LIGHT E-NE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG 60W S OF 14N AND ELEVATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...AND PORTIONS OF NE VENEZUELA THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE W ATLC WATERS REMAINING MAINLY N OF 24N AND W OF 55W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W AND EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N53W TO ANGUILLA NEAR 18N63W AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT ARE LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 46W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N26W CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 35W DRIVING A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N16W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W TO 21N22W. THIS FRONT HAS VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT REMAINS VERY LIMITED. HOWEVER...A PULSE OF ENERGY MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N27W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 19W-27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN