000 AXNT20 KNHC 152351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 7N18W 4N30W 7N42W 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF E OF 90W CONTINUING INTO THE W ATLC WHILE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS NOW ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH OVER S MEXICO ABOUT 175 NM NW OF MEXICO CITY. COOL DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS MODERATING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALSO INCREASING OVER THE W GULF AND INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N TO OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND SE LOUISIANA BETWEEN 88W-92W. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N55W DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W EXTENDING ALONG 16N68W TO 16N72W THEN S TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR SANTA MARTA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SW OF A LINE FROM THE NW COAST OF HAITI TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 13N60W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 60W-62W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD...AND TOBAGO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ANCHORED OVER SW GEORGIA COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N75W 25N58W TO BEYOND 32N49W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N51W EXTENDING ALONG 25N53W TO 21N61W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 85 TO 125 KT COVERING THE AREA N OF 21N BETWEEN 53W-79W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N55W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ALONG 22N51W TO BEYOND 32N43W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 225 NM NW OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 24N44W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 13N BETWEEN 35W AND THE COAST OF W AFRICA SUPPORTING A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N18W EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 25N19W TO 22N21W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 17N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N30W COVERING AN AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 22W-28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW