000 AXNT20 KNHC 142332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 9N28W 6N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-29W AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE NW ATLC REMAINING OVER THE U.S. E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR AT THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE E GULF S OF 27N E OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. COOL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND INTO WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 75W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR SANTO DOMINGO TO 16N73W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 13N76W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR MONTERIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/SHEAR AXIS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE E TIP OF CUBA ALONG 15N78W TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR TRINIDAD DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT GIVING FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE E U.S. SEABOARD COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND IS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N59W ALONG 24N62W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 220 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR TRINIDAD EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N TO BEYOND 32N54W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF THE REGION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 22W-47W SUPPORTING A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N26W EXTENDING ALONG 24N29W TO 20N34W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 18N42W. AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E ALONG 16W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW/NAR