000 AXNT20 KNHC 140550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 07N25W 07N39W 06N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 20W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AND SUBSIDENT NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WEST OF AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES AND W ATLC N OF 25N. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS A MAJORITY OF GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE W ATLC THAT DIPS TO 25N AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W EXTENDING SW TO THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 14N83W. THE FRONT BECOMES FAIRLY DIFFUSE SW OF JAMAICA AND NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 50W-90W AND IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG A DIFFUSE SHEAR LINE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N79W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. WITH TROUGHING DIPPING TO 25N OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HOWEVER INDICATES THAT MOSTLY DRY AIR AND W-SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE W OF 65W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 22N60W TO 17N63W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 50W AND OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN 42W-58W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FOR A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N31W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 24N35W TO 23N43W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ANALYZED TO 28N24W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N21W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 20W-32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN