000 AXNT20 KNHC 131130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N13W 04N25W 05N45W 01N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 02N43W TO 06N45 TO 09N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 22W-35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 40W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 13/0900 UTC...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING A BROAD AXIS SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A BASE IN THE SE GULF NEAR 23N85W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE THIS FRONT HAS FULLY CLEARED THE GULF...A SECONDARY PULSE OF ENERGY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FORT MYERS. QUICK MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 87W AS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS APPEAR ENHANCED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...STRONG N-NW WINDS CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS SETTLING IN AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY USHERING IN A VERY COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N79W TO BELIZE CITY BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. THE COLD FRONT IS DEFINED BY A LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. IT CONTINUES MOVING SE AT NEARLY 15-18 KT AND IS FORECAST TO SPREAD STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N60W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 10N TO 90W OVER PORTIONS OF THE E PACIFIC REGION. BENEATH THIS OVERALL DIFFLUENCE AIRMASS...AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOTED NEAR A SHEAR LINE ALONG 78W THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 08N78W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES WERE NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS THAT CONTINUE TO ADVECT AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 66W-72W AND THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 69W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 32N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES MARCHING EASTWARD AT NEAR 15-18 KT. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO 27N69W AND INTO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 26N-32N. EASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ALONG 26N TO NEAR 26N58W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 17N61W 22N56W TO 26N56W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 55W-62W. FARTHER EAST... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 25N ALONG 45W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG 27N BETWEEN 25W-45W ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 25W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 45W AND SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM 26N23W TO 24N35W TO 25N46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN