000 AXNT20 KNHC 112357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 08N20W 09N26W 05N40W 03N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 14N22W TO 05N27W AND IS LIKELY REFLECTIVE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 04N10W TO 04N32W TO 19N32W TO 04N10W TO 14N23W TO 14N17W TO 04N10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA AT 28N82W. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-93W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OF THE TEXAS COAST MOVING SE INTO THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 28N WITH 70-90 UPPER LEVEL WINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION NW OF THE FRONT TOGETHER WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E PANAMA FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 77W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER INLAND SOUTH AMERICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 50W-80W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE 10-15 KT E WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 12N E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N79W 23N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1011 BM LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 27N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 26N60W 20N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 52W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N38W. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N19W 26N22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W WITH A TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N20W TO 20N25W TO 5N40W. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N79W TO S FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION NW OF THE FRONT TOGETHER WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA