000 AXNT20 KNHC 110559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 6N26W 5N38W 1N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5-12N BETWEEN 13W-21W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 21W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE BASIN IN MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE TO SW WITH LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND IT. STRONGER SLY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTES MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM PANAMA TO HISPANIOLA. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO S OF HAITI NEAR 18N75W. THE AXIS SEPARATES STRONG NLY FLOW TO THE W...AND TRADEWIND ELY FLOW TO THE E. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N70W. NELY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE NW OF THE CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE W ALONG 25N75W 27N78W AND UP THE UNITES STATES COASTLINE ALONG 31N80W 33N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 24N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE S ALONG 21N68W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 18N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS N OF THE LOW CENTER AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 27N63W 29N56W 32N52W. THIS SYSTEM LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO THE W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUING ALONG 47W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 51W-67W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N43W. AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS CAUSING CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FAR E ATLC N OF 27N. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 6N47W TO E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND NWD TO THE AZORES. THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON