000
AXNT20 KNHC 101757
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
 
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 08N27W 01N50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 
09W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM NORTH OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW RESIDES ALOFT OVER THE 
GULF...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN 
THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 25N90W TO INLAND OVER 
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE 
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN 
U.S. PLAINS AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WHICH IS FORECAST 
TO INTRODUCE THE NEXT RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW 
GULF BY LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER WESTERN CUBA 
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY 
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 
THIS DRY AIR ALOFT IS FURTHER SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING THAT 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD ALONG 85W TO 
COSTA RICA. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF A 
SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR LINE AXIS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO 14N77W INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 10N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THIS BOUNDARY AND CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED ALOFT BETWEEN THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NW AND DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 09N59W. OVER THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EASTERLY TRADES TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE AS A WESTERN ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTS TO THE NORTH 
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. IN 
THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE 
SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 67W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N73W TO OVER 
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 32N54W TO 26N66W THEN INTO A 1011 
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW 
ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MAINLY FOCUSED EAST OF 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT AND LOW OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 22N70W TO 32N59W. NW OF THE LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO OFFSHORE OF 
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR 31N81W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA 
COAST FROM 28N-33N W OF 78W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING 
FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO BEYOND 32N50W THAT SUPPORTS A 
SURFACE RIDGE BETWEEN 30W-50W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. AN 
OCCLUDED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN E OF THE AZORES WITH THE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N24W...AND THE 1000 MB SURFACE LOW 
NEAR 39N21W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE REMAINING N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 16W-27W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN