000 AXNT20 KNHC 092329 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU DEC 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N15W 5N25W 1N37W EQ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE NOW TRAVELING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE FAR SE GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 84W S OF 25N. THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 10 TO 20 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS ACROSS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE NW GULF. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NW GULF...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE NW BASIN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 21N82W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO SOUTHERN BELIZE ALONG 19N82W 17N85W 16N89W. NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS 60 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N80W. THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT/DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NW BASIN. JUST SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND TRANSITIONS TO A SHEARLINE JUST EAST OF JAMAICA CONTINUING SW INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N78W. N-NE WINDS AND EASTERLY TRADES CONVERGE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SHEAR LINE AND INTO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION BROADENS OVER THE N CENTRAL AFFECTING HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE N OF16N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N64W 28N70W 27N78W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N81W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES. FARTHER SE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N68W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. THIS TROUGH FALLS WITHIN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS GENERALLY PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING THE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 62W-74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FALLS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTING A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED NEARBY THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 35N18W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N14W TO 19N23W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA