000 AXNT20 KNHC 082351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED DEC 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 6N30W 4N40W 5N48W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN FROM 2N TO 12N EAST OF 27W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WEST OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N47W TO 4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 25N90W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW ALONG 23N92W 20N93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. MARINE OBS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 KT TO UP TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 26N87W TO 24N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 80 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 110 NM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING ESE FAIRLY QUICK...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ESE ACROSS THE NW GULF. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA BY EARLY THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE NW GULF BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGING WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA IS ANALYZED AS A SHEAR LINE FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN PANAMA ALONG 18N71W 15N75W TO A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW AROUND 9N78W. STRONGER NE WINDS AND EASTERLY TRADES CONVERGE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SHEAR LINE AND INTO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING CUBA AND JAMAICA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION E OF 70W...INCLUDING THE THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. FIRST...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 27N70W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NO CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS DEPICTED STRONGER NW WINDS TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 25N62W. THEN...IT CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE S OF 22N. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING PREDOMINATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 25W AND 50W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N17W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N25W. ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERALLY REMAIN N OF 29N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA