000 AXNT20 KNHC 071709 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N11W 05N20W 08N39W 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N19W TO 07N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 04N58W TO 09N59W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 55W-62W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 04N49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 07/1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W TO 22N97W TO 19N94W. WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 22N. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SOUTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOST OF THE GULF E OF 95W WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT... ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 81W-88W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA...INCLUDING INTERIOR NORTHERN HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 04N49W WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W-NW TO 13N78W. LOCATED BENEATH THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N71W TO 16N70W. ALSO...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 09N78W. WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N78W TO 14N73W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W EXTENDING SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N76W. WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WANE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 50W AND SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N46W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-55W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 17N E OF 30W THAT SUPPORTS STRONG W TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT AS CAPTURED BY A 07/1116 UTC ASCAT PASS N OF 28N BETWEEN 20W-35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN