000 AXNT20 KNHC 071144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N20W 5N30W 4N40W... INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N2W 4N10W...6N11W 4N15W 2N24W...7N22W 6N25W 7N33W 10N38W 9N43W 5N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 4N IN SURINAME TO 10N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND IN PARTS OF BRAZIL...VENEZUELA...SURINAME...AND GUYANA... TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 24N70W...INTO THE BAHAMAS NEAR MAYAGUANA...TO CUBA ALONG 77W...THROUGH 20N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 19N...TO A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT BANKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO FROM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM COSTA RICA TO HAITI. THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. A WEAK 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THIS AREA FOR PARTS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N67W 13N70W TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN COASTAL COLOMBIA AND COASTAL PANAMA. A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THIS AREA ALSO FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 25N31W 20N34W TO 14N37W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 40W. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 37W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N45W. A RIDGE GOES FROM THE 1020 MB HIGH CENTER TO 25N46W 21N58W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT