000
AXNT20 KNHC 062351
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST MON DEC 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
 
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 4N30W 3N40W 4N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-26W. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WEST 
ACROSS GUYANA ALONG 56W S OF 10N PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE GULF IS 
NOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE BACK-END TALE OF THIS 
FRONT IS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 20N89W 21N93W 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT TO 
ABOUT 27N. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH A 
GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY 
WNW FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVER CUBA AND CONTINUES SW TO THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL ALONG 22N79W 20N83W 20N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM N OF THE FRONT. ALSO...SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER BELIZE... 
HONDURAS...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...PANAMA...AND COSTA 
RICA...ASSOCIATED TO THE SFC 15-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW BANKING UP 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS REGION. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1009 MB 
LOW IS CENTERED AROUND THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER NEAR 9N77W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 65W-75W. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF 
77W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND WEST ATLC...ENTERING 
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 32N56W CROSSING THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA 
ALONG 27N65W 24N72W 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLC SUPPORTS A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N48W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE BASIN. UPPER 
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A 985 
GALE LOW EAST OF THE AZORES AT 37N21W. THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO 
THIS SYSTEM STAYS NORTH PF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS... FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND 
EXTEND FROM 32N57W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA