000 AXNT20 KNHC 051200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N30W 2N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W FROM 2N TO 10N...PARTIALLY IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEXT TO FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W...AND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM GUATEMALA TO CENTRAL MEXICO BEYOND WEST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... PASSING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO MEXICO AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD AND REACHING SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS CAUGHT UP IN AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY REACHES 30N50W FROM NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT IS MARKED QUITE WELL BY A BAND OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N90W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N65W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN CURACAO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC IS 5.01 INCHES. PERSISTENT RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IN THE AREA OF A 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM NICARAGUA BEYOND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 20N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA...CURVING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N90W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N65W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 26N55W 20N65W BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N50W...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ROUGHLY FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND THE COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N23W 22N23W 13N31W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 30N17W TO 23N23W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 23N23W TO 19N30W AND 11N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/REMNANT CLOUD LINE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT