000 AXNT20 KNHC 031748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 5N25W 5N35W 4N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 31W-40W AND FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 40W-48W. A CLUSTER OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE NW ATLC COVERING ALL BUT THE SW GULF SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN BASINS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF LIMITING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SW GULF WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO JUST E OF VERACRUZ. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE SAT AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS LATE SUN BEFORE MOVING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON TRAILING A TROUGH NW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH TUE AND WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE GULF SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE DAY IS THE CONTINUAL FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR A WEAK 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N79W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND COUPLED WITH THE S FLOW FROM THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND THE N SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA BETWEEN 71W-78W AND S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA S OF NICARAGUA. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS E OF THE BAY ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE N CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE E OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N61W TO 27N66W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR HOLGUIN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N58W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 22W-50W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH A 987 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N38W AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N27W ALONG 25N29W TO 15N39W AND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING ALONG 24N34W TO 14N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER W EXTENDING FROM 26N35W TO 20N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT N OF 22N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT N OF 25N. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 8N28W WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA TO BEYOND 32N10W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N35W TO 21N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW