000
AXNT20 KNHC 031052
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST FRI DEC 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
 
FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 7N30W 6N40W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 
31W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO IS LAGGING 
BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE. CYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SOME OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN COVERS PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND HAZE
ARE IN MEXICO AND THE MEXICO COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...THAT COMES FROM
THE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
COVERS PART THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
IN CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 
ON TOP OF PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO 
13N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ENTERING THE 
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF 
THE AREA...AND MOVING FROM THE PART OF CUBA THAT IS TO THE WEST 
OF 80W TOWARD HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 24N70W...ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 19N80W...AND CURVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT FOR 
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
AND FLORIDA INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 29N64W 25N70W...AND THEN
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N
TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND THE COLD FRONT. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N39W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N390W AND 19N40W 11N56W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W IN 
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT
GOES FROM 32N29W TO 27N30W 20N35W 15N40W AND 11N50W. A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 20N40W AND 14N50W. A COLD FRONT
CURVES FROM 32N35W TO 24N40W 21N50W AND 26N59W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 26W 
AND 30W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF EACH OF THE THREE INDIVIDUAL BOUNDARIES.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 
THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EASTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT