000 AXNT20 KNHC 021800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU DEC 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 7N26W 10N45W 8N56W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 9N63W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 31W-40W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 31W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE ENTIRE GULF SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH ON TUE/WED LEAVING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER N ALABAMA. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 91W. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING E ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE TAIL END BEING STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES CUBA NEAR SEGUA LA GRANDE ALONG THE E COAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ALONG 19N96W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR SAN PEDRO SULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 9N81W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E TO 10N77W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA/S OF PANAMA COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE PERSISTENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA/PANAMA AND TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 69W-75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE N CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT N OF A LINE FROM N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W TO NICARAGUA NEAR PUERTO CABEZAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE AREA N OF 13N E OF 83W WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N68W ALONG 27N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 27N73W BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SEGUA LA GRANDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 80W WHERE A LAND BREEZE IS MOVING OFF FLORIDA AND GENERATING A THIN BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS S OF 28N TO THE COAST OF CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER N ALABAMA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO BEYOND 32N63W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N BETWEEN 30W-52W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH A 995 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N47W AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING ALONG 28N42W TO 24N48W AND A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N30W EXTENDING ALONG 20N38W TO 11N52W WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N31W TO 14N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN THE FRONTS AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE EASTERN MOST FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN T E E TROPICAL ATLC S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N25W WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N17W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 16N36W TO 30N28W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR NE ATLC N OF 23N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW