000 AXNT20 KNHC 021127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 4N30W 6N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR LINE TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A CONTINENTAL DRY/COLD AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF UP TO 15 KT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS HAVE YIELD LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER A GREAT PART OF THE BASIN S OF 27N. A RATHER TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 25N E OF 87W WITH GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXCEPT THE FAR NW AND SW CORNERS OF THE BASIN. THE MOST REMARKABLE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE BASIN. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM WESTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 22N81W 20N85W 15N88W. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR A 1009 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N79W. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ THAT CROSSES FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 75W. AS THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF S AMERICA...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FLARE UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA WEST OF 66W. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA TO COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 32N68W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF FRONT. 20 KT NW WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORTS A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N69W...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLC. A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GENERATING A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N41W 27N44W 24N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A FAIRLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N30W 26N33W 21N37W DISSIPATING TO 15N44W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 20N33W TO 14N38W. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA