000 AXNT20 KNHC 011740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED DEC 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N15W 5N30W 6N44W 9N54W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 29W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E HALF OF THE U.S. COVERING THE GULF WATERS FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/1500 UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND EVERGLADE CITY EXTENDING ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. A JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF NEAR 27N89W TO OVER GEORGIA CONTINUING N JUST INLAND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH WINDS OF 85 TO 100 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING WEST OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS JUST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE EXITING THE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AS IT ENTERS THE W CARIBBEAN AT 01/1500 UTC ALONG THE W COAST CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO 19N87W THEN CONTINUING S ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE TO JUST INLAND OVER NW HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N81W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE PERSISTENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA AND TO THE COAST OF PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W-70W. THE N CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT N OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS WITH VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE N CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 01/1500 UTC NEAR 32N77W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO THE W TIP OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA ALONG 73W TO BEYOND 32N COVERING MOST OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN 66W-77W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 40W-66W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING ALONG 25N43W TO 21N52W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT TO 19N58W BECOMING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF THE FRONT TO 75W. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 27N E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF NW AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW