000
AXNT20 KNHC 011125
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4N30W 7N40W 12N50W TO INLAND OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS FROM 
2N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 140 TO 250 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-53W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS RIGHT OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF GUYANA.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
NEAR 27N82W ACROSS THE SE GULF ALONG 24N84W INTO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD RATHER 
QUICKLY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURE IN ITS 
PATH...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 
TO 9 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO LINES OF 
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM W OF 
FRONT. NNW WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE E 
OF FRONT 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE 
NW GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY...LOOK FOR 
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE NW INTO THE N CENTRAL BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID-UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MOST 
OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 12N. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
RIDGE ARE LEAVING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER 
PRESSURE COVERS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ROUGHLY CENTERED 
NEAR A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N81W. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH 
PERSISTENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W INCLUDING 
INLAND PORTIONS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ALSO...15-25 KT 
TRADE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL AND THE FAR NW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS DUE TO 
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTH 
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS COVERING THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 65W. 
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE 
FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 77W...ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE FRONTAL 
TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 79W N OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER 
TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING ALONG 25N43W 
22N50W TO 19N60W DISSIPATING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC TO 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOOK FOR 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WHILE 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS 
WITH CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA