000 AXNT20 KNHC 010532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 6N30W 10N40W 11N50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 47W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N83W CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N87W TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD RATHER QUICKLY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURE IN ITS WAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF FRONT. NW WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE E OF FRONT 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE NW GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID-UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 12N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ARE LEAVING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE COVERS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N80W. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PERSISTENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ALSO...15-25 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT PRECIPITATION OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTH ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 65W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING ALONG 25N45W TO 20N57W DISSIPATING TO 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NE ATLC ALONG 32N10W EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 26N16W TO A DISSIPATING 1011 MB LOW NEAR 25N22W. NEITHER THE FRONT OR THE LOW IS GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOOK FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA