000
AXNT20 KNHC 290552
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
 
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF GAMBIA/SENEGAL TO 11N30W 9N40W 
9N50W...CURVING INTO NORTHEASTERN GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...ON TOP OF 
BROAD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 
27N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 25N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO THE EAST 
OF 92W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. LOW CLOUDS 
AND HAZE IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST 
OF 95W FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA TOWARD THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 
14N72W...TO 11N76W...TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W...
AND OVER THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM THE COAST OF 
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE CURVING ACROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 
EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD 
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
33N58W TO 27N69W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 29N60W 27N69W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM 27N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND CONTINUES
AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS
FROM 240 NM TO 400 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT...
TO THE NORTH OF 31N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE 32N56W-TO-NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 
31N50W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
26N61W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ANOTHER 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
TO 14N51W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A 997 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
18N40W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM THE 997 MB LOW CENTER TO
A 998 MB LOW CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N24W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES 
FROM THE 997 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N31W AND 22N40W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE 998 MB LOW CENTER TO 30N21W AND 18N34W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N15W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO 24N23W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT